25 November 2019

Strength of Schedule Rant

Sure - college football is a business and no business is going to make their work any harder than necessary. But all businesses are subject to all types of unexpected swings in the economy, consumer confidence, competitors, and the "easy wins" and the end result of those swings - good or bad.

Clemson, Alabama and others, are being faulted for their lack of schedule strength when compared to teams like LSU. But is it by design? Did Clemson plan for the entire ACC to have a down year? Did Bama plan their light schedule?

The upside to playing cupcakes is three-fold: A high number in the W column, less chance of injury to your starters (because you can play the 4th and sometimes 3rd quarter with back-ups), and thus your backups get enough reps to step in when actually needed.

The downside is you are plagued with endless Twitter comments about your cupcake schedule, and in today's playoff system you risk getting a lower ranking by a team with less but stronger wins. And that is probably right - the teams that toughed it out against stronger opponents spent more time planning and practicing and took more risks than you did.

A pretty big risk when your fan base / boosters / TV contracts expect championships.

Most teams are locked into mostly conference games but have leeway with their non-conference schedule. That leeway can help or hinder your playoff chances. But you don't know and simply cannot predict how your conference or even your non-conference opponents will be year-to-year. Remember App State over MIchigan? And how many others like that?

Now I'm a fan on big teams playing lesser teams on occasion. Why? It gives the little guy some time on the big stage, it gives the teams with fewer boosters much needed money to improve their facilities, and it gives the fans something to talk about on the rare occasion when the cupcake takes down the big cheese.

If you want to play with the big boys (playoff teams) then schedule accordingly. If you just want wins and a decent bowl then schedule accordingly. It's your business and like any business the payout depends on the calculated risks you take and the amount of real work you put into the game. Remember: It's a game and an easy win really isn't that much fun.


10 November 2019

Start It Up

Here we go again with the same old rants (and it's really kind of fun and practically tradition) - SEC bias, strength of schedule, they haven't played anybody, they had that one bad loss, quality wins, style points, etc. etc.

Alabama has no business in the top four after yesterday. They hung with LSU...as did Florida and as did Auburn. Bama is indeed a Top 10 team but they should not be in the CFP discussion. They will not win their conference, have no quality wins, their defense gave up 46 points, and the one game they needed to win they didn't - at home.

And unless Georgia wins out, they should not be ranked as high as they are. Georgia has a lot of good players in place but they are not on the LSU/Bama/Clemson level. Maybe not even the OSU level (as much as that pains me to say).

My Top 10 picks given the current situation would be as follows. Of course, the OSU/Minnesota and the LSU/Georgia things will work themselves out in the next month.

1. LSU (will win out)
2. Ohio State (likely to win out -but I'm tired of them scoring style points to make up for their moderate schedule)
3. Clemson (likely to win out)
4. Minnesota (may have to play OSU)
5. Oklahoma (should win out)
6. Alabama (will not win their conference and will have no quality wins except maybe Auburn)
7. Georgia (must win out and then play LSU; win the SEC and they should be in the mix even with the 1-loss)
8. Oregon (will have to face Utah and look impressive from here on out; no quality wins)
9. Utah (will have to face Oregon and look impressive from here on out; no quality wins)
10. Penn State (outside looking in for a shot at the conference title)