Strength of Schedule Rant

Sure - college football is a business and no business is going to make their work any harder than necessary. But all businesses are subject to all types of unexpected swings in the economy, consumer confidence, competitors, and the "easy wins" and the end result of those swings - good or bad.

Clemson, Alabama and others, are being faulted for their lack of schedule strength when compared to teams like LSU. But is it by design? Did Clemson plan for the entire ACC to have a down year? Did Bama plan their light schedule?

The upside to playing cupcakes is three-fold: A high number in the W column, less chance of injury to your starters (because you can play the 4th and sometimes 3rd quarter with back-ups), and thus your backups get enough reps to step in when actually needed.

The downside is you are plagued with endless Twitter comments about your cupcake schedule, and in today's playoff system you risk getting a lower ranking by a team with less but stronger wins. And that is probably right - the teams that toughed it out against stronger opponents spent more time planning and practicing and took more risks than you did.

A pretty big risk when your fan base / boosters / TV contracts expect championships.

Most teams are locked into mostly conference games but have leeway with their non-conference schedule. That leeway can help or hinder your playoff chances. But you don't know and simply cannot predict how your conference or even your non-conference opponents will be year-to-year. Remember App State over MIchigan? And how many others like that?

Now I'm a fan on big teams playing lesser teams on occasion. Why? It gives the little guy some time on the big stage, it gives the teams with fewer boosters much needed money to improve their facilities, and it gives the fans something to talk about on the rare occasion when the cupcake takes down the big cheese.

If you want to play with the big boys (playoff teams) then schedule accordingly. If you just want wins and a decent bowl then schedule accordingly. It's your business and like any business the payout depends on the calculated risks you take and the amount of real work you put into the game. Remember: It's a game and an easy win really isn't that much fun.

Start It Up

Here we go again with the same old rants (and it's really kind of fun and practically tradition) - SEC bias, strength of schedule, they haven't played anybody, they had that one bad loss, quality wins, style points, etc. etc.

Alabama has no business in the top four after yesterday. They hung with LSU...as did Florida and as did Auburn. Bama is indeed a Top 10 team but they should not be in the CFP discussion. They will not win their conference, have no quality wins, their defense gave up 46 points, and the one game they needed to win they didn't - at home.

And unless Georgia wins out, they should not be ranked as high as they are. Georgia has a lot of good players in place but they are not on the LSU/Bama/Clemson level. Maybe not even the OSU level (as much as that pains me to say).

My Top 10 picks given the current situation would be as follows. Of course, the OSU/Minnesota and the LSU/Georgia things will work themselves out in the next month.

1. LSU (will win out)
2. Ohio State (likely to win out -but I'm tired of them scoring style points to make up for their moderate schedule)
3. Clemson (likely to win out)
4. Minnesota (may have to play OSU)
5. Oklahoma (should win out)
6. Alabama (will not win their conference and will have no quality wins except maybe Auburn)
7. Georgia (must win out and then play LSU; win the SEC and they should be in the mix even with the 1-loss)
8. Oregon (will have to face Utah and look impressive from here on out; no quality wins)
9. Utah (will have to face Oregon and look impressive from here on out; no quality wins)
10. Penn State (outside looking in for a shot at the conference title)

Upsets and Close Calls

All hail the underdog...Georgia Tech, Illinois, BYU and Vandy...and a few others that came close. All this just serves the reminder that no matter how well you think you can predict - you can't.

Upsets

• Illinois over the best defense in the land.
• BYU over undefeated Boise State. That was the best 3rd quarter of football BYU has played in a long, long time.
• Georgia Tech over Miami...in Miami.
• Vanderbilt pulling off the upset over Missouri when Mizzou was having visions of the SEC-East crown.

Close Calls

• Kentucky and Georgia scoreless at halftime? OK - there was a torrential rain but the Dawgs looked eerily similar to last week in their 2OT loss to South Carolina. (Maybe they're just holding back for the Florida - Auburn - Missouri - SEC Conference (?) games?).
• Michigan almost regained some footing by tying up the white out game... but they are gone for good in 2019 if they lose to Notre Dame next week.
• Washington seemed to have it all sealed up and then Oregon came back. Three losses was not the UW expectation this year.
• Texas barely held off Kansa - the Mad Hatter is at it again. 
• South CArolina kept things interesting with Florida hoping to pull off a second upset in as many weeks.
• And the Sooner Schooner took a tumble - but everyone was OK.

More in Week 9?

Feasibly...

• Auburn could knock off LSU.
• Wisconsin could knock off Ohio State.

Not likely but it would make things interesting...

• Michigan may just have enough stored up anger to pull off a W over the Irish.

ohhh - we're halfway there...

Halfway mark has been reached and as we all expected deep down, just not what we really expected six weeks ago...

Clemson no longer holds the top spot...or the #2 spot.
Bama has the top spot but LSU and OSU are getting votes, too.
(That Bama - LSU game is gonna be wild!).
Oklahoma showed some weakness but they still have a full package.
Georgia - not the dominant team we expected (but we had already noticed).
Washington can't decide if they want to be good or not.
Arizona, ASU and Oregon are getting noticed and rightfully so.

Will the PAC-12 have a playoff team this year afterall?. Maybe so if the SEC-west beat each other up.

And to the Georgia Dawgs...hang on. Remember Auburn 2017? And LSU 2018? You went on a tear after those surprising losses and you really could not be stopped. Here's to hoping you go on the same kind of tear and continue to disrupt the Top 10.

Month One is Done

Clemson: Showed some cracks that others will expose.
Alabama: Back on top...for now. LSU and Auburn are prepping.
Ohio State: Enough with the high scores already. Let your 2nd string guys get some reps before the 4th quarter.
Georgia: Hope that rest did ya good. Still got a long row to hoe.
BYU: Starting RB out for season. Starting QB out for a while. Lose a close one and sitting at 2-3. Ugh...
Florida: Voters are fearful of putting you up there.
LSU, Auburn, Wisconsin, Oklahoma: Not much respect...yet.
SMU: Wow...in the top 25. Kudos!

Now We're Rolling

Utah was exposed, SoCal found yet another great QB hiding on the bench, and we can now just write Michigan off for 2019.

Utah did not have an answer for USCs 3rd string QB who has been sitting the bench for three seasons. If he was this good, and he was, didn't the coaches know that already? USC may have found an answer for what was looking to be another dismal season. With UW and ND ahead they needed a spark and they got it. No idea what happened to the vaunted Utah defense. They were a no show.

The Georgia - Notre Dame game lived up to the 5-year hype. Georgia pulled it off with a little help from the fans (see NDs false start stats) and a 3rd quarter defense that had been idling the first half. But Georgia did not look ready to take on the likes of Bama, Clemson or even LSU - yet. They've got work to do.

The other top teams took care of business but with seeing UCF go down, the UCLA comeback, you gotta wonder if one of those top teams will also slip up.

BYU played about the same as they did in the OT win over USC - but they were simply outmatched against a UW offense that executed a near perfect game.

And to sign off - why does OSU continue to run up the score on lesser teams. Do they think anyone cares? It is shameful in this day and age. It's a carry-over form the Whiner Meyer years (who also did it at UF and UU) and it should be stopped. It's soooo 1970s.

Week 3 Excitement

Week 3 is not much of a factor in the playoff scheme of things but it was rather exciting.

• BYU pulled off another win in OT over the [erroneously] ranked USC Trojans. This was the most put together and complete BYU team I've seen in a long, long time. The offense was consistent and played four quarters while the defense stepped up their game against a very capable passing game. BYU has go tot feel good about their chances with #22 Washington next week.
• Iowa and Iowa State had a showdown until the end.
• Penn State had a scare with Pitt but showed they have work to do.
• ASU is showing some life hanging in there with Michigan State.
• Maryland was...well maybe can be....or we just don't know yet. There's something there we're just not sure what.
• Florida showed some depth in a last minute win over Kentucky. They'll need it with Franks out for the season.

Playoffs

Clemson is just on cruise control. Bama "just" has to prep for showdowns with LSU, Auburn and likely Georgia. The LSU - Auburn will be a factor as will Georgia - Florida and Georgia - Notre Dame next week. OSU has a fairly easy road ahead. Oklahoma has a few tests (Texas and OK State) but are looking every bit as good as the last two years. And Utah appears to be the only hope for a PAC-12 entry. The dark horse: maybe OK State.

2019 Start-Up

Two weeks in and things are already shaping up (Or, are they?).

Clemson looks to run the table since they're biggest threat (TA&M) is already behind them and the 2nd biggest threat (Syracuse) washed out against Maryland last week.

And what's up with Maryland? Who saw that coming? Where are they headed?

BYU put up a good fight in the annual Holy War with Utah ... for the first half. But then Utah just seemed to get better with every down and BYU leveled out. Again - sparks of potential and excitement but no sustained fire. The Tennessee takedown was fun and will give them some confidence as they play USC and UW back-to-back.

My Playoff Prediction
As usual, it's Clemson and the SEC champ to start. Oklahoma has the offense to get it done and I'm going with 2nd place SEC for the fourth spot. I don't think OSU can pull it off, Michigan is already waning, and Texas needs another year.

Which SEC teams? Georgia seems to have most everything in place if a few inexperience freshmen step up on defense. They have a little refining to do before the ND date but they'll be just fine. Bama will be Bama with talent and depth and strategy but I don't "feel" it this year. This may be the ultra rare year that Bama needs to rebuild with so many new coaches and a growing field of teams that have been able to scare them (and beat on occasion). And don't count out LSU or Auburn with their newfound QB talent.

Season End Q&A

Final thoughts on the 2018 season:

How did the CFP do this year? They got it mostly right. I questioned all season why they were giving Notre Dame such a high ranking, but they must have seen something else. And after watching Clemson clobber Bama it made a little more sense. We did get another exciting, albeit a rout, natty to watch. But this time it was because no one could believe what was happening.

Should UCF have had their shot? Yes. Maybe the first season was a one-off but to go two full seasons undefeated in this day shows you have something going on. They should have been given more respect this year.

Is Clemson THAT good or was Bama just off? Mostly yes, but Saban gave up at halftime as evidenced in his 30-second interview going into the locker room at halftime. He admitted then that they had not prepared for what they were seeing. I think that's why we didn't see him get upset like he normally does. He knew it was a losing battle because they had failed to properly prepare.

Are these QB transfers a fad or trend? Time will tell but if this year's transfers get more playing time then I'm guessing we'll see a lot more of it and from other key positions. The downside is to the game - college football now looks waaaay more like a business than it did before. Transfers make it look more and more like NFL minor league. Parents will be one of the key problems. They've paid good money for their kids to attend summer camps and he'd better not sit the bench. They expect an ROI (scholarships, playing time, eventual NFL contracts). They'll push their kids into uncomfortable situations.

Will these high profile QBs play right away and make a difference right away? Probably play, but they will not be THE reason a team makes the playoff this year. It's a team effort (skill level, physically, mentally) and these new kids may or not be accepted right off by the team and they will have new systems to learn.

What happened to Georgia in the Sugar Bowl? The Dawgs walked in a little too confident, still smarting from their second oh-so-close Bama loss in 11-months and then the CFP snub ... and Texas took advantage of that. Texas wanted to prove something (they did) and Georgia felt they had already done their proving. Yes - every game matters (ie: the LSU loss).

Are we ready for a 6- or 8-team playoff? Not yet. The CFP has holes to fill in with the 4-team playoff before thinking of expansion. The level of competition gap in the Top 10 teams needs to close a little more first. And that is happening little by little. And the CFP will get better at it each year.

Will Urban Meyer and Mark Richt really "retire"? Meyer won't. It's all he knows and what keeps him alive. He never looked happy in his previous short stint as analyst. Richt on the other hand is a more well-rounded person and probably palces football in its rightful priority slot in his life. He'll stay close to the game in some capacity but he's ready to focus his talents elsewhere.

Any 2019 predictions? Texas isn't back quite yet but they are back on track. UCF will stay the course and continue leading the fight for the Group of Five. Washington will finally come around with some grit and consistency. The PAC-12 will need another year to regain some respect and the Big-10 will have a down year. Bama and Clemson will be the teams to beat and will have the likes of Georgia, Oklahoma, Texas, Washington and LSU nipping at their heels. The SEC_East will make some noise this year and be more competitive. And yes, this will be the year BYU breaks their 8-game losing streak to Utah (finally!).

Thanks for reading!
Looking forward to 2019 already!