CFP Made the Easy (Safe) Choice

Great leaders make the tough decisions, not the safe and popular decision. That is why the CFP is good, but not great. But it's the system we have and it's better than the BCS system and the polling system.

Their annual objective is to select the four best teams in all of college football and the committee had a tougher than normal job this year. Picking the best four will only get more difficult each year - meaning an 8-team playoff system is looming sooner than we think. I'm saying by 2026.

The committee was glad Georgia didn't beat Bama because that would have forced them to put Georgia AND Bama in the playoff for the second consecutive year. But - they did not expect Georgia to take Bama down to the wire. Georgia proved to be the only team this season that scared Bama - right up until the last minute. But, true to form, it was another "victory for Satan"...I mean "Saban".

(BTW - kudos to all the Georgia players. They performed their best game of the season. And to the coaching staff as well who had the players ready and a great game plan. Just a few less coaching blips down the stretch and the Dawgs would have pulled that off).

What the CFP Got Right
Sure - take the undefeateds for that is a major accomplishment...as long as their opponents were worthy. (Although if you put Notre Dame in then why not Central Florida?). Deciding between Georgia, Oklahoma and Ohio State had to be tough. But look at the numbers, the odds, the SOS, the stats - not the conference champion, not the number in the L column.

They took the easy path...the decision that would receive less backlash...the decision that kept us from a third Georgia-Bama matchup in less than a year...the decision that pits the top two Heisman picks against each other - instead of the decision that puts two of the four best teams back on the same field.

In other words - they did right by most college football fans, not by the teams and players. They conceded to those with SEC fatigue and Bama fatigue. (Hey - if you really want to concede to the fans, give UCF their shot and settle that question).

What They Did Wrong
Does a close loss to #1 Alabama really count against you when no other team came close?
How does it compare to the OU loss to 9-4 Texas or the OSU loss to 6-6 Purdue and near miss at 5-7 Maryland?
If #1 Nick Saban says he does not want to play Georgia again, that should almost be reason enough to put them back in for a rematch. Did the committee bow down to Saban?

The current spreads for the two playoff matchups are double-digits. If the right choices were made I'm guessing we'd see single digit spreads.

Oklahoma's Heisman winner and high powered offense will be fun to watch initially - but Bama's defense will outlast them and Bama's offense will score at will on their 108th ranked defense. Only a team that plays both sides stands a chance against Bama (as Georgia proved). You can't just outscore them as is the MO of Oklahoma.

Per Pat Forde (Yahoo!): 
Yes, Georgia lost to Alabama on Saturday. So would anyone else who played the Tide — probably by a wider margin. For those who opposed a rematch of an instant classic, congrats on the potential mismatch you get instead. But this is what we should have expected from the College Football Playoff selection committee. On Selection Sunday, the most rigid, risk-averse, politically sensitive, establishmentarian sport on the planet simply did what comes naturally.

Rivalries and Bold Predictions

Rivalry weekend did not disappoint: highest scoring game ever, a Top 4 team embarrassed, a top 3 team close call, a comeback win in the 4th after being down by 20, and various shellackings of interstate rivals.

With the exception of Michigan and Washington State, the top teams handled their rivals as expected.

Up-and-down BYU played like pros through three quarters only to let a 3rd quarter 20-point lead slip away in the 4th. (I think the 8-game losing streak is just in BYU's head now and they will struggle with Utah until they get past that).

Michigan let us all down by not blowing out Ohio State as was expected. Hand it to Urban* - he had his team ready to make a statement and that they did.

The regular season is all wrapped up with a sure surprise inside - we just don't know what it is yet. Here is my bold predictions:

• Ohio State loses to Northwestern since they gave their all to Michigan.
• Oklahoma loses as well since they too are all out of gas.
• Notre dame wins - oh, wait - they don't have to play a conference championship game, they are already in at #3 so they just have more time to prepare for the playoffs.
• Clemson takes care of business with un-ranked Pitt sealing their playoff bid.
• UCF wins - again - but will not get their due respect - yet.
• Georgia gives Bama their biggest scare yet since the Citadel and Auburn exposed weaknesses, and the Dawgs pull out a close win (payback), the SEC Championship and a playoff bid ... and Bama too still makes the playoff over Ohio State - again.

One could argue that the Georgia-Alabama SEC Championship game is almost a default national championship game again (like in 2012). No one thinks Notre Dame could hang with either leaving Clemson the only worthy outlier. Controversy will reign once again.

=======

*Article snippet (from Paul Newberry, AP, Aug 24, 2018):

...That's right. In the world of college athletes, cut-rate tattoos are a more serious offense - two games more serious, to be exact - than a head coach looking the other way when faced with at least two allegations of an assistant beating up his wife, not to mention a whole range of disturbing acts that should've cost Smith his job.

To recap, there was an arrest for drunken driving, a recruiting trip to the strip club, failing to pay bills on time, showing up late for work or not at all, having an extramarital affair with a school secretary, checking into drug rehab, and taking sexually explicit photos of himself at the White House during a team visit.

Employee of the Year, Smith was not.

Still, [Urban] saw no reason to dole out a pink slip until about a month ago , when it was inconveniently revealed on social media that Smith was accused of violating a protective order taken out by his now ex-wife. Also coming to light was Courtney Smith saying she was abused by Zach in 2015 - allegations that she had shared with Coach Liar's wife, Shelley.

But The Ohio State University, leaving no doubt that winning championships trumps all of [Urban's] failings as a supposed leader of young men, decided that a worthy punishment would be to sit out the first three games of the season , thereby allowing him to return in plenty of time to lead the Buckeyes to another Big Ten title. ...

No Surprise

No surprise...

Meyer strikes the surrender cobra pose.
Been waiting all year to see this.
Thanks Purdue!

That Ohio State lost to an unranked team - again. OSU is just not consistent and has not been for years. Even the last time they made they playoffs they started and ended the game with the same score. Plus - this year it seems everyone had it out for OSU given the summer fiasco. The signs were there with close calls and comeback wins - it was just a matter of time.

No surprise...
That the World's Largest Cocktail Party did not disappoint. Two fierce conference rivals, both 6-1 with a shot at the SEC East crown. One coming off an embarrassing loss, the other coming off a season-high win (over the team that embarrassed the other). Sure, Georgia pulled away but not until the 4th quarter. The Dawgs are not known for bouncing back but my bet was on Jake Fromm and his competitiveness. I didn't think he'd let that LSU game keep him down.

No surprise...

A new low at BYU - hardly any fans
on a perfect fall day for football.

That BYU failed to show any passion or aggressiveness yet again. There does not seem to be much hope for a turnaround this year as we all hoped. The QB change sparked one game but failed to demonstrate any QB or team consistency. For the first time in years I'm debating whether or not to seek out and pay top dollar for the Holy War as I have in years past. It could be really, really ugly.


No surprise...

Not even in the student section.

That the top four remain the same but I doubt that'll be the case in a month. Remember how 4-6 weeks ago we all thought we'd see Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Washington vying for a playoff spot? Bama or LSU will drop out this week and I still have my doubts about Notre Dame pulling it off. Clemson is playing better but I think both Clemson and Bama have yet to be tested and may not be unless they meet up - again.

Top 10 Melt Down

And this is why college football is fun to follow...unpredictable, close games, passionate fans, crying fans, pro picks that run a muck, etc. Its just anybody's call on any given Saturday. Four losses and two close calls in the Top 10.

That first loss after a 6-0 start
s tough to accept.

1. Alabama: Still rolling as expected but weaknesses are showing. Much like UGA (until yesterday) I don't think Bama has been tested yet.
2. Georgia: The flubbed fake field goal in Q1 took all passion out of the Dawgs and it was downhill from there. Four turnovers, dropped passes, over-thrown passes. It was not their norm and LSU took advantage. They've got serious rebounding to do as their next three games are against Florida, Kentucky and Auburn.
3. Ohio State: Talented and well coached but like Bama, yet to be tested.
4. Clemson: They're just glad they had a bye week in unlucky Week 7.
5. Notre Dame: Down to the wire after trailing most of the game. This just gives future opponents more insight.
6. West Virginia: Awww...this was my dark horse team. A scoreless second half...really?
7. Washington: One of my pre-season picks but now they are out of the playoff discussion. Yes - it was an OT loss but a 2-loss team is out of the question this year.
8. Penn State: Not surprised as I think, and have for two years, that they are still re-building.
9. Texas: Starting to turn things around. It just took a few coaches to figure it out.
10. UCF: See Notre Dame above.

Hey - BYU discovered that making a much-needed QB change sometimes makes everyone else up their play a little more. Mangum had promise but not the consistency and the Cougars may have found some light down the stretch.

Separation Anxiety

Five weeks into the season and we are starting to see the real contenders as well as the real pretenders. IMHO, the contenders today are determined not by your W column or who you've played but by your consistent play and crisp execution.

The Pretenders
VaTech looked good on paper but losing to Old Dominion, regardless of your win over a ranked team this week, shows the inconsistency.

BYU never should have been ranked #20 and I agreed more with the Coaches Poll at about #26. Give 'em credit for what they did in Wisconsin but to show up last night with little or no resemblance is evidence they still have a ways to go before deserving a Top 25 ranking.

Jury-Still-Out
Clemson is just hanging on but showing they have the drive to do so - and can.
Georgia is winning and winning handily. But their execution is a bit sloppy and they are just not as crisp as last year. The next few weeks (Vandy, LSU, Florida, Kentucky, Auburn) will test them Dawgs.
West VA is gaining ground with the voters and rightfully so.
UCF is, too.
Ohio State is not great. Their win over Penn State was due more to a poor defense than a great offense. We'll see...
Others: LSU, Oklahoma, Kentucky

The Contenders
I was not a Notre Dame believer but they seemed to have turned the corner this year and given a favorable schedule they have a chance to really keep the selection committee up at night. With a worthy independent team the committee will have it's hands full deciding which two Power 5 conferences to leave out this year.

The Huskies looked very good against a decent BYU defense. Their Week 1 loss may hold them out of the playoff depending on who else has 1-loss.

Bama has and continue sot separate itself. Granted - five wins were against opponents who are currently 12 - 12. They still have yet to be really tested and TA&M showed they can at least be hampered. But I've watched my fair share of football over the years and I have not seen a team as well prepared, conditioned and able to execute as the what I've seen in Bama this year. Will they lose one or could they? Sure - any given Saturday shows u s that. But I'd say it's not likely.

Telling Week 3

After a couple of cupcake weeks and most teams at the top falling in line, Week 3 proved to be a bit of a test for some and insight of others.

BYU is 2 - 0 against Heisman hopefuls. Both these wins were away games, both upsets, yet they could not pull off a W at home against Cal last week (it was BYU 2017 playing last week...too little, too late). But week 1 and 3 BYU showed they can play better and more consistent this year. Against the Badgers BYU was not lucky, they just man-handled in the trenches and made the right play calls at the right time. BYU is not #1 by any means but they felt like it on Saturday. They'll play with some confidence the rest of the season.

Georgia is done playing around and it is all uphill from here on out. They cannot afford to look ahead or overlook any team or rest on their laurels.

Bama continues to dominate but I wonder if the ease of winning will catch up to them...

Ohio State is done with it's Urban ban but they are still targeted more than any other top team this year and that will catch up to them. We won't see them in the playoff and I don't think the selection committee wants to deal with the ire it would draw anyway.

Off to the Race

Week 1, as usual, had few surprises as the top teams took care of business as expected. Most played FCS or other sub-par opponents but we got the Bama QB question answered (as if we did't already know) and Miami picked up where they left off 2017 (as many expected).

The Washington-Auburn showdown created plenty of chatter as both teams could end up their respective conference champs and in the playoffs. Ohio State ran up the score (again) just making the new haters hate even more. Georgia showed off both QBs and a number of backs as they prepare for another run at the title. West Virginia converted a few more (I was already on their bandwagon) with a convincing win.

BYU pulled off the biggest upset as they controlled Arizona and their Heisman Favorite QB / SI cover boy most of the game. Their defense stepped up and the offense played with more consistency (that is what they lacked most last year). If they can keep that up and improve on it they just might improve on the 2017 4-9 record - even with their brutal schedule (Cal, at Wisconsin, at Washington, at Boise State, at Utah).

ENDZONE
Saban, I get it, you're tired of the QB questions and you don't like the media anyway. They're a distraction. But we all have parts of our jobs we dislike (even if we really like our job). So make your peace with that fact, take a few deep breaths and let people do their job even when you disapprove of their chosen career.

2018 Pre-Season

Here are my playoff picks for the 2018 season, with a fifth as a wildcard. No particular order and no champion as I see the championship could go to any of the top four teams in the country.

1. The SEC Champion: OK - it's a bit of a cop-out,but you know it's true. Likely Bama, Georgia or Auburn (if they get past game 1 with UW). My money (and heart) is on Georgia because they're wanting to prove that 2017 was not a 1-off.
2. Wisconsin: They have something to prove after being left out last year and they have the right mix of talent returning.
3. Clemson: They've been there the past three seasons, have the right coach and cred, but especially because ZERO teams on their schedule finished in the Top 25 last year.
4. Washington: A bit of a self-imposed chip on their shoulder after not living up to expectations last year. Most of that team returns and should handle the PAC-12 handily.

And the wildcard goes to West Virginia: On paper they look good (as do many others) but their schedule plays out nicely with the just the right mix that could put them ahead of the above four as long as they go undefeated.

There you have it...let the games begin!

2017 - In the Books

The fat lady has sung and gone. The season came to a spectacular end. A few mishaps, arguments, and much debate (as usual) but in the end, few can say that it wasn't right.

For BYU: Ouch, really big ouch. As long as I've been a fan I've never seen it this bad nor the outlook more shaky. The worst season since 1943 and the resulting staff shake-up has me worried about 2018 already. 'Nuf said...


For Georgia: So close...again. Just like 2002, then 2007, then 2012, and now 2017 (do you too see the 5-year pattern here?). The Rose Bowl double-OT victory will be savored for years to come. And Georgia was riding those high emotions through the first half of the championship game. But Saban did what Saban does best - adjust and win (which is exactly how Georgia pulled off the Rose Bowl). Yes - the officiating was dismal at times but all teams have to deal with that. (But it is odd that the few officiating mis-steps noted in various post-game articles would have all been against 'Bama; no officiating mis-steps against Georgia were mentioned). But what a great, fun season and hopefully I don't have to wait another five years for another.

For University of Central Florida: Join the club. USC, Auburn, and various others over the years have been dealt the same blow. But college football is not a 1-off sport and indeed favors year-over-year consistency. Do your time, keep up the good work, and validation will happen.

EndZone
College football, the only sport I watch, seems to be on a slippery slope. It's as exciting as it has been but the things tolerated today are eating away at us little by little. The big, big money rumors continue to mount feeding the concern that it's all about money and not about the sport or the educational/career growth of the kids. Coaches seem to allow more: three strikes before being dismissed for school/team violations, televised yelling/attacking coaches on the sideline and being allowed back in the game, tolerating colorful language and smack-talk that has reached new lows. And in the game when coaches see the crotch grabbing, the finger pointing and throat slitting gestures, and shoving heads into the ground after the whistle, then not doing anything about it - that is on the coaches 100%.

No, these are not just young kids full of passion and uncontrollable urges. They are in our living rooms, in front of small children, and often looked up to and emulated in today's world. They need to recognize and respect that. Being "just a kid" does not excuse such actions.

College football, IMHO, is about traditions. The coaches of yesteryear would have had a heyday with the actions and attitudes that today's athletic directors, college presidents, coaches, parents and trainers allow.