13 December 2007

No Logic in 2007 Season

I'm sure we could all come up with a few others...but here is a short list by rivals.com. The rest of the "Strange Days" article can be found here.

And, SI's list of top 10 upsets of 2007 can be found here.

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NON-CIRCULAR LOGIC
Everyone remembers those 7th-grade math problems: If "X" is greater than "Y" and "Y" is greater than "Z," then "X" is greater than "Z." Well, not necessarily. Take a look at these results.


Florida 59, Tennessee 20 on Sept. 15; Tennessee 35, Georgia 14 on Oct. 6; Georgia 42, Florida 30 on Oct. 27.

California 31, Oregon 24 on Sept. 29; Oregon 55, Washington 34 on Oct. 20; Washington 37, California 23 on Nov. 17.

Clemson 24, Florida State 18 on Sept. 3; Florida State 27, Boston College 17 on Nov. 3; Boston College 20, Clemson 17 on Nov. 17.

West Virginia 31, Rutgers 3 on Oct. 27; Rutgers 20, Pitt 16 on Nov. 17; Pitt 13, West Virginia 9 on Dec. 1.

Texas Tech 35, Texas A&M 7 on Oct. 13; Texas 59, Texas Tech 43 on Nov. 10; Texas A&M 38, Texas 30 on Nov. 23.

Illinois 27, Penn State 20 on Sept. 29; Penn State 27, Iowa 7 on Oct. 6; Iowa 10, Illinois 6 on Oct. 13.

East Carolina 52, UCF 38 on Oct. 6; UCF 47, Marshall 13 on Nov. 3; Marshall 26, East Carolina 7 on Nov. 10.

Missouri 36, Kansas 28 on Nov. 24; Missouri finishes ahead of Kansas in the Big 12 North; Missouri finishes ahead of Kansas in the final BCS standings; Kansas gets an Orange Bowl invitation and Missouri goes to the Cotton Bowl.

04 December 2007

BCS Mess 2007

Bryan Burwell, St. Louis Post-Dispatch said it best:
"Of course it doesn't make sense. You know it, I know it, even the doofuses who continue to perpetrate this idiotic Bowl Championship Series system have to know just how fatally flawed and hopelessly messed up their multi-million dollar scam is."

My take? The BCS was a good idea...at first. College football needed something better (at least, everyone was clamoring for something better - little did we know). But as we've seen over the years the BCS system simply does not work. Sometimes, rarely, when the "right" teams win and lose, then the system appears good. But this year has got to be the year that we all agree that the system is broken and must be fixed because we don't want to see this again.

A couple of links to other BCS mess articles that I liked:

http://deseretnews.com/dn/view/0,1249,695233334,00.html

http://www.fannation.com/blogs/post/84940?new=true

03 December 2007

Week 14 - 2007

Wow! What a weekend of unbelievables! Here's my list of unbelievables:
#1: Both the #1 and #2 teams lost.
#2: UW goes up on Hawaii 21-0 in the 1st quarter and still loses 35-28.
#3: Tennessee let the SEC Championship slip away with two critical mistakes down the home stretch.
#4: This years championship will be another Big 10 - SEC battle (not the Pac-10 - SEC many wanted to see). Is OSU scared or happy to be seeking some redemption?
#5: The Championship bowl will feature a 2-loss team (LSU).
#6: There are three 4-loss teams in the top 25; all from the SEC.
#7: BYU got no respect in the polls for going undefeated in their conference.
#8: Pitting 10-2 BYU against 6-6 UCLA...who they already played three months ago...who they play again in nine months? C'mon...give BYU a worthy opponent and mix things up a little.
#9: Although Hawaii finally got some poll respect this week for being the only undefeated team in the nation you must wonder if it was really enough respect. Should they be playing center stage with OSU? We'll find out when they play UGA in the Sugar Bowl 01 January.

But is the list above any wonder when we have seen 13 top five teams lose to unranked teams, four different #1 teams, and two, count 'em two #1 teams who lost at home in November?



With Tennessee's loss to LSU, Scott dropped to 4th place behind Blaine and Jason who moved up thanks to Wisconsin sneaking into the top 15 (who saw that coming?). My prediction for our winner? Scott...since BYU will sneak into the top 15 after the bowls (and they should). This is the last week of our contest until the bowls are done although I may post a few comments during the bowl season. And, of course, I'll post my season 2007 review after it's all said and done.

For a complete bowl listing, click here:
http://sports.yahoo.com/ncaaf/news?slug=bowlsked&prov=st&type=lgns

And, for those of you wishing for a better system to determine the national champion you can reference the link below (it has playoff brackets and all). But just remember, a playoff system would eliminate the poll controversy that provides us plenty of fodder for lunch time conversations.

http://sports.yahoo.com/ncaaf/news?slug=dw-playoff112707&prov=yhoo&type=lgns

25 November 2007

Week 13 - 2007


So goes the season, so goes our contest. Scott moves from worst to first in this unpredictable season (thanks to Tennessee pulling off a 4OT win). Scott has been on the bottom for three weeks straight...then, bam, it's like he pulls off a 4th and 18 from his own 12 yard line with 1-1/2 minutes to go to take the lead! Never say die! But, Tennessee plays LSU Saturday in the SEC Championship game.



Funny how the SEC Championship game is not represented by the highest ranked SEC team (UGA at #4). The Big 12 Championship is represented by the two highest ranked Big 12 teams. And here's a thought: If LSU loses to Tennessee, and Missouri loses to Oklahoma, and West VA falls victim to Pittsburgh (reference the curse of the #2 ranking below), will OSU and UGA play for the BCS title? UGA is a 2-loss team and I've never seen a 2-loss team play for the title.



And after Friday's performance against BSU, why is Hawaii only ranked #11? And why did previously un-beaten Kansas fall from #2 to #7 when the loss was to now #1 Missouri? That's a big drop for losing to Missouri. Is it all timing? Early season losses always play well into the final rank of a team and it could cause even more BCS frustration.

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Two For Nothing (Brett Edgerton, ESPN.com)
One is the loneliest number? Please. Three Dog Night, it's time you met the 2007 college football season. It's a place where the No. 2 is about as lonely and depressing as it gets.

Since the start of October, the No. 2 team in the AP poll is a mind-boggling 2-6, with the two wins coming against Louisiana Tech and in a miracle rally at Virginia Tech. Kansas is the only one of those snakebitten No. 2 teams whose loss wasn't stunning. The five others all lost to unranked teams (three of them at home). And for a few of them, it didn't end there. South Florida, BC and Oregon all went on to lose their next game, while Cal has fallen off the face of the earth with a 1-5 collapse.

AP No. 2 since Oct. 1
Date, No. 2 Team, Result Nov. 24, Kansas L, vs. No. 4 Missouri
Nov. 15, Oregon L, at Arizona
Nov. 10, LSU W, vs. La. Tech
Nov. 3, Boston College L, vs. Florida St.
Oct. 25, Boston College W, vs. No. 8 Va. Tech
Oct. 18, South Florida L, at Rutgers
Oct. 13, Cal L, vs. Oregon St.
Oct. 6, USC L, vs. Stanford

18 November 2007

Week 12 - 2007

First and second place (Robert and Blaine) are within 1 point of each other (51.0 to 51.7) while everyone else is within 2 points (44.1 to 46.2). This is the first time Robert has seen 1st place since mid-season 2004. Jeff comes in at 3rd place ending his season-long drought from a 1st, 2nd or 3rd ranking (everyone else has had at least one).

If BSU pulls off a win in the islands Friday night then we will likely see Lance and Shaun move into 1st and 2nd place. Or, if Tennessee wins this week (they have beat Kentucky 22 straight games) and then pulls one off on LSU, then those with Tennessee in their top 15 will be at the top.

BYU finally gained some respect as they head into rivalry week. BYU is the only newcomer to the top 25 in since Wake Forest and BSU moved in 3 weeks ago. Auburn and Texas Tech move in as the only 4-loss teams in the top 25.



11 November 2007

Week 11 - 2007


Thanks to Illinois the NCAAF controversy-ites can back off on the OSU being #1 issue and move on to why there are three 1-loss teams ahead of Kansas. Illinois may have saved OSU from another championship bowl embarrassment. OSU's loss to Illinois makes the 9th time this season a top-5 team has lost to an un-ranked team.

The highest 2-loss team is Georgia (#8); the highest 3-loss is Florida (#14); there are six 3-loss teams in the top 25. Hawaii has yet to break into the BCS top 15 (but they are tied with Clemson at #16). BYU is ranked #27 in both polls and #29 in the BCS.

Our top three remain the same as last week (Blaine, Robert, Shaun). Boise state moved into the top 15 in the AP and USA Today putting Lance in Shaun in prime position to take over if Boise State can crack the BCS top 15 (currently at #18). If Tennessee wins out then Jen, Scott and Jason will move way up as well.

04 November 2007

Week 10 - 2007

Blaine and Robert still hold the top two spots (with the same scores) and Shaun nudged in ahead of Lance for the #3 spot. But, a win and 3-spot jump by #18 Auburn this Saturday over #10 Georgia could change everything since 5 players have Auburn in their top 15.

So are we looking at another Big 10 / SEC championship game? Will OSU hold on to go undefeated only to be embarrassed again? Or, will #13 Michigan (unbelievable) upend OSU in the season finale? Can LSU get back to the early season dominance or will their luck run out against a revitalized Arkansas team or in the SEC Championship game against UGA / UT / UF? We may see Kansas and Oregon battle for the championship.

ps: In regards to the one comment left on last week's blog, see the subsequent response.

29 October 2007

Week 9 - 2007

Not much time to write this week since Im on vacation and paying internet access by the minute...Blaine has a commanding lead...Michigan is creeping back in...USC is not living up to the pre/season hype...Im going to the beach...GO DAWGS!

21 October 2007

Week 8 - 2007



Aaaa...the NCAA FBS landscape begins to show signs of stability (yea...right). Actually, this was the first week since week 1 that there were no newcomers to the AP and Coaches top 25. And wow what a change in our little game. With Hawaii in the top 15 (in 1 poll) and Cal out (of all 3 polls), last weeks bottom 3 players are this weeks top 3! And 1st place Blaine is 2 points up on the pros! Two weeks ago we were all within 5 points, last week it was 8 points and now we are all back within 5 points.

Saturday Summary: We are down to 5 undefeated teams (OSU, BC, AZ State, Kansas, Hawaii), Cal has lost 2 straight to unranked teams, LSU bets and wins again, and Auburn shows up as the first top-25 3-loss team. And, why is there so much praise for USC blanking Notre Dame with words like "USC Pummels ND" and "USC Throttles ND"? Hello...this is un-ranked, un-impressive, 1-7 ND. How difficult was it really to "throttle" the Irish? Was someone expecting ND to win?

And, this Thursday's match-up of BC and Va Tech will be the first real test for BC and could quickly change the top 5 positions.

A few pics of the #31 BYU game are shown...it was quite the snowstorm in the 4th quarter. BYU looked sloppy in the first half and will need to clean up their game before taking on TCU and UofU.

14 October 2007

Week 7 - 2007

Let the BCS disputing begin...and let me light the first torch and grab the first pitchfork! Undeserving Ohio State is #1 only by default. They have not been tested and they likely will not be until they reach a bowl game (and we all remember how that turned out last year). OSU opponents to date are a dismal 23 - 25.

Kentucky proved themselves against LSU (they take on Florida this week), Cal lost their chance at #1 (due to poor coaching), the SEC has 7 of 12 teams in the top 21, the PAC 10 has 4 of 10 in the top 13, Hawaii has been stuck at #16 for weeks (maybe rightfully so), Michigan is back in the top 25, and Lou Holtz thinks currently undefeated and #15 Kansas will be playing in the championship game (would anyone even dispute that possibility after what we've seen this year?).

There were 11 undefeated teams Saturday morning and now there are only six - and none of them play each other. This is the first time since 2004 that a #1 team has lost in the regular season and the first time since 1996 that #1 and #2 have lost on the same day.

Jen retains her top spot and puts more distance between her and now second place Shaun. Last week we were all within 5 points - that is now 8 points. Jeff had the biggest jump (12 points) while Robert and Scott are battling out last place within 1 point of each other.

06 October 2007

Week 6 - 2007



Jen regains the top spot but Michael and Shaun are within 1 point. Jen is even a half-point ahead of the AP and Coaches polls. Robert regains his last place spot from Scott...and is apparently looking to hold on to it. Nobody improved this week but we'll all improve next week...since the BCS will come out then.

This was another weekend for the underdog (should've gone to Wendover!). And you can't make any sense of the wins and losses - ie: UCLA lost to 0-5 Notre Dame who lost to Michigan who lost to Appalachian State...so could App State beat UCLA who ealier beat Stanford who beat #1/#2 ranked USC on Saturday?

The only thing that would surprise me more this season is if Robert won this contest at the end of the season! (Hey...it could happen...note that in week 0 there was a 15-point spread between us; that spread is now at only 5 points).

30 September 2007

Week 5 - 2007



Wow...talk about a tight race - our top 6 (Lance, Jen, Dave, Shaun, Blaine, Michael) are all within 1.1 points of each other. The bottom three (Robert, Scott, Jeff) just switched places a little. Of our 11 players only two (Blaine, Robert) improved their score this week.

As for football this past week: Nobody is safe. Season 2007 will go down as the season of surprises. Nobody...nobody would have predicted Notre Dame 0 - 5, Michigan un-ranked, Louisville un-ranked, and USF in the top 10...nobody. If there was ever a year to make the drive to Wendover and bet on the underdog, this is the year.

Nine of the top 25 lost this week; five of those nine were in the top 10 and four of those elite top 10 were humbled by non-ranked teams: OK lost to Colorado, Florida to Auburn (again), Texas to Kansas State (again) and Rutgers to Maryland. And what about the USF jump...from #18 to #6? Wow!

This raises the question (again) of the validity of a ranking system. If voters pick the best teams how is it that four of the top 10 all lost to un-ranked teams? And two other top 10 teams (USC, Wisconsin) seriously struggled to win by a field goal. Maybe the voters should be ranked and their votes counted accordingly.

Next weeks poll results will also be interesting as the SEC will get a big shake up: Florida at LSU, UGA at Tennessee and Kentucky at South Carolina. Five of those six teams are in the top 12.

22 September 2007

Week 4 - 2007


Dave continues to show us all up - even the pros (though I don't think Wisconsin and Rutgers will hold on); Shaun moves into 2nd place and Jen is welcomed back into the top tier, tying with Lance for 3rd. (Yes, Robert is still on the bottom but I'm slowly dragging Jeff and Scott with me).

Newcomers into the top 25: Purdue, Michigan State, Cincinatti and Arizona State. BYU pulled off a commanding win over then 3-0 Air Force, hopefully getting back defensively to where they have shown they can be. USC continued to show why they are ranked #1 (for now), Ohio State is showing signs of taking the Big 10 and Oklahoma continued to be impressive as they showed up Tulsa. And what a day in the SEC: Florida by only 6 over Ole Miss, UGA pulls out an OT win over 'Bama, Kentucky looks as good as their basketball team and although LSU won they let the Gamecocks score 16 points (LSU only allowed 7 total points in the three previous games).

My predictions for teams previously in the top 15 but will not return that far: Michigan, Arkansas, Nebraska, Tennessee, Penn State, Auburn, Louisville; and Wisconsin is bordering this list given their poor defensive performance on Saturday.

For Saturday's funniest (weirdest) commentary along with an awesome play, click here.

16 September 2007

Week 3 - 2007


No gimmees, no gaurantees - that's what I like about college football. Three ranked teams fell to un-ranked teams (Louisville to Kentucky, UCLA to Utah and Arkansas to 'Bama) and four new teams entered the top-25 (Alabama, Kentucky, South Florida, Missouri). TCU was handed their second loss by Air Force, Texas barely escaped over mid-major UCF, USC proved a point and BYU surprised us with a loss to Tulsa.

Two top-25 (and SEC) matchups next week that could affect us each: Georgia at Alabama and South Carolina at LSU.

There is a lot of pink in our chart...even on the pro side. Dave (1st place) and Robert (last place) hold on to their spots for the second week in a row.

08 September 2007

Week 2 - 2007


One game just doesn't mean much, does it? Texas A&M pulled off a win to un-ranked Fresno but it took three overtimes; UGA fell at home to un-ranked South Carolina; Va Tech fell hard to LSU; Louisville, even though they won, allowed 42 points by Middle Tennessee; Hawaii won in OT but allowed 44 points...and Michigan...well...they just did not live up to the pre-season hype. Any bets for the Michigan - Notre Dame game next week? Both teams are 0 - 2 and on a 4-game losing streak.

BYU started out bad, almost came back, lost in the end, but left with some amazing stats. TCU started running away with the upset but couldn't sustain it.

This weeks beef: Why did Oregon go from un-ranked to #19 (AP) for beating now 0 - 2 Michigan? Since when do we give credit for beating up un-ranked teams?

Dave pulled way ahead in our contest...even beating out all three pro pre-season rankings! But he'll have to keep Rugers and Nebraska in there to sustain that. Jason jumped into 2nd place (the only one of us who showed improvement this week) and Keith "the football prophet" fell to third but he has been in the top three each week...so far.

02 September 2007

Week 1 - 2007


WEEK 1: Jeff and Michael are the only ones who improved on last week (along with SI).

Michigan, Tennessee and Florida State were the top 25 teams that lost. We all goofed on Michigan. Pollsters will not likely forgive Michigan's loss to an FCS team anytime soon...nor Tennessee's SEC defense giving up 45 points to Cal.

BYU looked very good against Arizona but they need some serious work on special teams to compete with UCLA next week. Along with the updated chart there are a few pics from the BYU game that some of us attended. One was taken as BYU scored TD #2 and the other is from the 4th quarter.

Stewart Mandel (si.com) on the Michigan / App State game:
"For everything that Boise State’s historic Fiesta Bowl win over Oklahoma said about the new era of college football, Appalachian State just trumped it ten-fold. What every coach tries to tell his players and the media every week only to be met by perennial skepticism has now been confirmed as true. No one is unbeatable in college football anymore. Anything can happen."



30 August 2007

Week 0 - 2007

What a variety of opinions we have. There are the conservatives, staying close to the AP and Coaches poll; there are the risk takers that use a random number generator for their picks; there are those who can't not pick their favorite team; there is even one who calls himself the "football prophet"...we'll see. It's going to be a fun season and this is the most participation we've ever had (11 players...just like a football team!).

25 July 2007

2006 Season - Top 10 Complaints

Below is a copy of an e-mail I sent to Terry Bowden (Yahoo! Sports) after the 2006 season and bowls were complete.

Terry:

A week removed now from the BCS championship game, I have come up with a list of what I feel were the top 10 disappointments or problems of the past four-and-a-half months:

10. Oregon coach Bellotti comments about BYU after the Las Vegas Bowl. Mike Belotti said in pre-game interviews that BYU was not good enough to be in the PAC 10…and he stuck by those comments after the 38 – 8 whooping. Coach Bellotti, see complaint #9.
9. Pete Carroll’s unsportsmanlike conduct. After losing to UCLA and thus being eliminated from national championship contention, Coach Carroll stood mystified on the sideline and did not make the walk to mid-field to congratulate Coach Dorrell. C’mon Pete, set an example, be a good representative of USC and of the great program you have helped build. Don’t tarnish it with such a petty act. You were out played and out coached – suck it up and get your multi-million dollar rear end to mid-field and congratulate the man and the team that showed you up.
8. Oklahoma coaches and fans complaining about BSU gadgetry plays. “It was the only way they could win” has got to be the lamest comment of the season. Every team does what it has to in order to win. OU got beat up and embarrassed and looking for excuses is inexcusable. Pay tribute to a heck of a team and be grateful you were part of it.
7. BCS Championship Bowl trophy presentation. All the talk of the BCS purpose and history and how it was created for the big six conferences and they had to nerve to say, “On behalf of the 11 conferences that represent the BCS…”. Yes, they all agree to the BCS rules but my guess is that few would like to be referred to as a representative.
6. A full week between the major bowls and championship bowl. Hello out there, we like our football and we like it all at once. We’ve already spent 2-3 weeks watching re-runs and listening to commentary about the upcoming bowls and we don’t want a week to ponder the seasons of the 117 teams while we await the outcome of the last two. A day or two, fine…but not a week.
5. Notre Dame ranked? Overrated might be an understatement. No wins against a ranked team and still end up #17…there’s more wrong with the system than no playoff.
4. OSU at #2? Oh, please. We all know if you start out high and do OK you end up in the top 10. And give ‘em credit for going undefeated in the regular season. But their lackluster performance in the championship game should have opened a few eyes and made the voters realize that maybe they weren’t quite as good as their win column indicated.
3. BSU ranked lower than USC? BSU may play in less respected conference but they still had to give it their all week after week and their record shows they did. USC didn’t. They overlooked two opponents (7-6 UCLA and 10-4 Oregon State) and it should have showed in the final ranking. Yes, LSU had two losses as well…to teams who ended up in the top 10 (Florida, Auburn)! Plus, LSU beat two others who were in the top 10 at the time (Tennessee, Arkansas). Don’t even compare LSU’s two losses with USC’s.
2. Poor officiating in Oregon Oklahoma game. Let’s learn to use properly ( and fairly) what modern technology so easily provides us. Done, over with, move on, but let’s learn from it.

And the number one issue of 2006 (and probably of many years):
1. No system to satisfy everyone on which team is the best. Maybe we don’t need a playoff system, maybe just a better ranking system, or maybe just a semi-playoff. Most NCAA football fans have their opinions and ideas on how to do it better (I have a few of my own). There are ways to fix this and satisfy most fans but somebody (somebody high up) has to really care and really listen. Don’t even give me the crud about “…if it’s so bad then why do people keep paying?” – they keep paying because they love the game (really love it) even if the final poll is a mess.

So there you have it…one fan’s complaints about another great, fun, exciting, unpredictable, and sometimes upsetting NCAA football season.

But amongst the disappointments of the 2006 season there was a bright spot that stuck out for me: The trophy presentation of the Fiesta Bowl to BSU’s Coach Petersen…and him giving credit for the win, not to the great defense or the outstanding offensive execution or to just one or two game MVPs, but to the back-up QB’s for the win. That was classy. And on top of that, in his reaction to the final rankings a week later he just seemed proud to be listed amongst the elite. He even called the final rankings “fair” and recognized that other conferences are “very strong”. No whining, no complaining, no excuses…just great sportsmanship. Pete Carrol, OU fans and Mike Bellotti could learn a thing or two.

Robert Ruiz
NCAA Football Fan

2006 NCAAF Pre-Season Contest




2005 NCAAF Pre-Season Contest




2004 NCAAF Pre-Season Contest




24 July 2007

The Beginning

This blog was created on 23 July 2007. It's purpose is to publish an annual NCAA Football Pre-Season poll contest a group of us have had for a few years. The group is growing and mobile and sharing the weekly results in a blog is easier than the weekly e-mails used before. This makes the contest results easier to access and comment on.